A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
