Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
